With President Donald Trump’s July 4 deadline approaching, Senate Majority Leader John Thune is optimistic the Senate will begin voting on the megabill by Friday, though significant hurdles remain. The Medicaid provisions, which are central to the proposed savings of hundreds of billions of dollars, are under intense scrutiny. Speaker Mike Johnson privately warns that pushing through these cuts could jeopardize House Republicans’ majority next year. Similarly, Senator Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) advises fellow GOP senators that the same cuts could become a political liability for Republicans, echoing the difficulties Democrats faced with the Affordable Care Act. GOP leaders aim to ease concerns by including a fund for rural hospitals, but even this measure may not fully address the concerns of figures like Susan Collins (R-Maine), who remains uneasy about the overall Medicaid changes.
Additional complications arise from pending rulings from Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough, who may soon decide on key provisions tied to the current policy baseline. Adverse rulings could force Republicans to reconsider their tax plan or take extreme measures to override MacDonough, a scenario that has not been tested before in tax legislation. With the tax package in flux and the Medicaid savings under threat, GOP leaders face a significant challenge in adhering to the budget deal they signed with Johnson earlier in the year.
What else we’re watching includes the Senate Judiciary Committee’s critical hearing for Emil Bove, a former Trump defense lawyer with a potential Supreme Court nomination in his sights. OMB Director Russ Vought is also set to testify about the White House’s request for $9.4 billion in budget cuts, likely facing tough questions from Republicans like Susan Collins, who has opposed cuts to PEPFAR. Senators will also receive a postponed briefing on the situation in Iran, with Democrat Tim Kaine (Va.) aiming to call a vote on his resolution to block further U.S. military action against Iran. These developments highlight the complex and high-stakes environment Congress is operating within as it attempts to navigate multiple legislative challenges simultaneously.