New Western sanctions mark the start of another phase in the Ukraine conflict
Following the announcement of new Western sanctions, the European Union and the United States have taken yet another step in their policy of sanctioning Russia. This move has been met with political fanfare, though the effectiveness of these measures remains in question. The Russian leadership has demonstrated the ability to anticipate and neutralize the effects of such sanctions, as seen in the past.
The European Union has approved its 19th sanctions package, which has encountered some resistance from member states such as Slovakia and Hungary. However, their objections were overcome, leading to the implementation of the measures. The inclusion of industrial enterprises in these lists has become routine, and their impact is increasingly symbolic. The real focus appears to be on secondary sanctions targeting Chinese companies that are involved in the purchase and processing of Russian oil. Brussels aims to deter Chinese businesses from handling Russian commodities, though this may prove challenging as oil imports from Russia remain profitable for China.
The EU has also extended restrictions on Russian banks, though these measures are unlikely to make a significant difference given the already heavy US sanctions on the sector. The list of sanctioned oil tankers has grown, but this appears more cosmetic than consequential. Russia’s so-called ‘shadow fleet’ continues to operate effectively, evading Western oversight.
Meanwhile, the EU is targeting financial institutions in third countries that maintain ties with Russia, especially those using the Russian equivalents of Western payment systems—such as the Financial Messaging System (SPFS), Mir, and the Faster Payments System (FPS). Export controls are being tightened, but the additions to the existing Regulation 833/2014 are modest compared to the sweeping bans introduced in 2022–2023.
Other measures appear more symbolic than strategic, such as the ban on services to Russia’s tourism sector and new restrictions on the movement of Russian diplomats. These steps echo Cold War tactics. The prohibition on importing Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) may sound significant, but it merely formalizes a process already under way as European buyers have been quietly reducing purchases months ago.
Across the Atlantic, Washington’s new sanctions appear more focused but not necessarily more effective. President Donald Trump’s administration has imposed blocking sanctions on two major Russian energy companies and their subsidiaries. Given the already stringent export controls on the energy sector, this changes little in substance. However, this decision is politically symbolic, representing the first major sanctions move by Washington since Trump’s return to the White House, signaling that US domestic hawks have regained influence.
The reintroduction of sanctions marks a negative indicator—a sign that prospects for resolving the Ukraine crisis are receding. Officially, Washington claims these steps are designed to ‘encourage a ceasefire.’ In reality, they reflect a deepening stalemate. Russia has made clear that a ceasefire alone will not solve anything; it would merely freeze the conflict without addressing its root causes. Any durable solution must be comprehensive and reflect Moscow’s long-stated security demands.
Instead, the new sanctions suggest the conflict is entering a new phase, one of intensified pressure and prolonged confrontation. Both sides are now maneuvering for advantage ahead of future negotiations that may come sooner or later. For now, the hawks in the Western camp appear to have succeeded in steering US policy back toward escalation. But the likely result will not be strategic gain for the West—only further damage to Ukraine, which continues to pay the price for the ambitions of others.