New Jersey voters are sending a clear message about their stance toward former President Donald Trump, despite the fact that he is not on the ballot in the current gubernatorial race. According to a recent Fox News poll, voters have a more negative view of Trump than a positive one by 11 percentage points. More than twice as many voters indicating they are casting their ballots to express opposition to the president rather than to show support. This sentiment is helping Democrat Mikie Sherrill maintain a 52% to 45% lead over Republican Jack Ciattarelli in the race, with her 7-point edge remaining just outside the poll’s margin of error.
The poll, conducted among likely voters, suggests that Sherrill’s supporters are poised to turn out, but the evidence for Ciattarelli’s supporters remains mixed. If the MAGA base comes to the polls, the Democratic advantage could narrow significantly. The poll also highlights a notable gender gap with Sherrill leading by 16 points among women compared to a 1-point advantage for Ciattarelli among men. Meanwhile, Ciattarelli is favored by 4 points among White voters and by 10 points among men without a college degree. Fully 98% of self-identified MAGA supporters are backing him, which is a significant portion of the voting base.
Sherrill is preferred by 48 points among non-whites, 24 points among voters younger than 45, and 16 points among those with a college degree. She is backed by 97% of Democrats, while Ciattarelli gets 92% of GOP supporters. The polling also shows that more New Jersians think Sherrill is honest and trustworthy than say the same about Ciattarelli. Sherrill is in positive territory by 13 points (56% vs. 43%), while Ciattarelli is in negative territory by 6 points (47% vs. 53%).
The candidates are vying to fill the seat of term-limited Democratic Governor Phil Murphy, who won re-election in 2021 by beating Ciattarelli by 3 points. Voters have mixed feelings about Murphy, as 49% view him favorably and 48% negatively. For Trump, it’s 44% favorable (31% strongly) vs. 55% unfavorable (48% strongly). Among voters who have a strongly favorable view of Trump, 63% say they are extremely enthusiastic about voting in the governor’s race, while that number is only 39% among those who have a strongly unfavorable view. While 16% of New Jersey voters say one reason for their vote is to show support for Trump, more than twice as many are voting to show opposition (35%). About half say the president is not a factor in their vote.
Two-thirds of Sherrill supporters say their vote is to express opposition to Trump compared to one-third of those backing Ciattarelli, who say theirs is to show support. The race is significant for New Jersey, as it seeks to fill the seat of the term-limited Democratic Governor Phil Murphy. The last time the New Jersey governor’s mansion stayed with the same political party for three consecutive terms was 1961. This election is seen as an indicator of the political climate in the state and is of national significance as well.
The Fox News poll, conducted October 24-28, 2025, surveyed 1,107 New Jersey registered voters. The poll results show a margin of sampling error of ± 3 percentage points. The results have been adjusted to represent the demographics of the registered voter population. The poll highlights the importance of voter turnout, particularly among Democratic voters, and the role of the Trump opposition as a significant factor in shaping voter behavior. The political implications of the race could extend beyond New Jersey, influencing broader national trends and potentially signaling a shift in the political landscape.