Experts have weighed in on the effectiveness of the U.S. military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, indicating that the attacks have significantly disrupted the country’s nuclear program. Despite President Trump’s assertion that the strikes completely obliterated Iran’s nuclear capabilities, the actual damage remains uncertain. A report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) suggests that the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators used in the strikes may not have fully destroyed the Fordow facility, which is central to Iran’s nuclear weapon-making efforts. Satellite imagery experts, however, have noted that the extent of the damage cannot be immediately determined due to the depth of the underground structures. The attacks on the Natanz and Isfahan facilities have also caused substantial damage, creating potential bottlenecks in Iran’s uranium supply chain and complicating its nuclear ambitions.
Experts like Andrea Stricker from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies believe that the shockwaves from the MOPs could have rendered the centrifuges inoperable, even if some were not fully destroyed. However, the complexity of underground facilities means that follow-up assessments are necessary to understand the full impact. While the U.S. and Israel may have caused significant damage, the long-term effects on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure remain unclear. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has called for immediate access to the sites to assess the damage, highlighting the ongoing concerns about Iran’s nuclear capabilities post-strike.
Additional satellite imagery has captured the aftermath of the strikes, showing craters at the Natanz facility and damage to the Isfahan site. Despite these signs of destruction, the true extent of the damage is still under analysis. The movement of nuclear materials by Iran before the strikes may have complicated recovery efforts, but experts argue that the disruption to Iran’s nuclear supply chain and the existing damage from prior Israeli strikes have already slowed their progress toward building a nuclear weapon.
The U.S. military confirmed the deployment of over 75 precision-guided weapons, including 14 GBU-57 MOPs, in the strikes. While the administration has expressed confidence in the results, further intelligence and assessments are needed to determine the full success of the operation. The IAEA’s call for access to the sites underscores the international community’s interest in evaluating the impact of the strikes on Iran’s nuclear program and verifying compliance with international non-proliferation agreements.