Democratic Mikie Sherrill Secures Third Consecutive Term as New Jersey Governor
Democrat Mikie Sherrill has won the New Jersey gubernatorial race, marking the first time since 1961 that Democrats have held the state’s governor’s office for three consecutive terms. Her victory was driven by strong support from Black voters, women, and younger voters, highlighting New Jersey’s continued blue lean despite recent Republican gains. Preliminary data from the Fox News Voter Poll, a survey of over 4,400 registered New Jersey voters, showed Sherrill performed particularly well with Black voters, voters under 30, women, and college degree holders.
The race also revealed a significant gender gap, with over 60% of women backing Sherrill compared to about 50% of men favoring Ciattarelli. Sherrill’s appeal among women was especially strong across all age groups, with her support peaking among women under 30. While Republicans have made gains among young men in recent elections, younger men in New Jersey this time sided with the Democrat. The gender gap also extended to parents, with moms breaking for Sherrill nearly 2 to 1 while dads preferred Ciattarelli by a little over 10 points.
Sherrill’s multiracial coalition was crucial to her win, as she received support from over 90% of Black voters and nearly 70% of Hispanic voters. Hispanic voters, who have been a focus of Republican courtship in recent years, did not support Republicans as much as hoped and instead sided with Democrats by over 30 points. White voters overall leaned toward Ciattarelli, largely due to a 20-point gap in his support among White men. White women split their votes between Sherrill and Ciattarelli, with slightly more favoring the Democrat.
The majority of voters with college degrees backed Sherrill, while voters without degrees slightly favored Ciattarelli. Ciattarelli carried the Republican stronghold of White men without a college degree by over 40 points. Both candidates drew support from over 90% of their respective party bases. Among independents, Sherrill received just over half the support, but additional backing from 60% of self-described moderates gave her the edge to win statewide. About half of New Jersey Republicans identified as MAGA, and they overwhelmingly supported Ciattarelli.
For 10% of voters, this was their first time voting in a gubernatorial election, and they backed Sherrill by 2 to 1. Despite Sherrill’s Navy background, over half of military households voted for Ciattarelli. Union households, however, narrowly supported Sherrill, with just over half backing her. The election also saw a significant impact from President Trump’s presence, despite him not being on the ballot. About 70% of Sherrill supporters said their vote was to send a message of opposition to Trump, while about a quarter of Ciattarelli voters said their vote was in support of the president.
Trump’s approval rating among New Jersey voters is below 50%, with over half disapproving. Issues of affordability dominated voter concerns, with taxes at the top, followed by the economy and healthcare. Voters prioritizing taxes broke for Ciattarelli, while those prioritizing the economy favored Sherrill. Nearly all voters cited property taxes as a problem, with 70% calling it a major issue. Rising electricity costs also influenced the race, with nearly 90% of voters indicating it was a problem.
Voters who identified both property taxes and electricity costs as major problems were more likely to support Ciattarelli. The economic outlook was largely pessimistic, with over 60% of voters having a negative view of the state’s economy. About 60% of those with a negative view voted for Ciattarelli, while 75% of those with a positive outlook supported Sherrill. The election also highlighted growing concerns over political corruption, with 90% of voters identifying it as at least a minor issue.
Those who saw it as a major problem were more likely to support Ciattarelli, while those who saw it as a minor issue favored Sherrill. Voter priorities included the desire for change, value sharing, and working for people like them. Change-oriented voters supported Ciattarelli, while those who prioritized value sharing and working for people like them favored Sherrill by 2 to 1. The race also saw accusations about Sherrill’s Naval Academy graduation, but these did not dissuade voters.
Voters who prioritized honesty favored Sherrill by over 40 points. Sherrill also benefited from a net-positive favorability rating, with over half of Garden State voters rating her favorably. Ciattarelli faced challenges from a negative campaign cycle, with about half of voters feeling he ran a mostly unfair campaign and having an unfavorable view of the Republican. Term-limited Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy’s job rating is underwater as he prepares to leave office, with roughly 20% of Democrats disapproving of his performance. Independents have mixed feelings, with about equal numbers approving and disapproving, and nearly all Republicans disapprove.