Nevada’s once-unshakable Democratic identity is under siege as the state’s shifting economy and shrinking patience fuel a Republican resurgence. The decision by its two Democratic senators to break ranks with their party to end the government shutdown has revealed deepening political fissures. This move, which came after months of partisan gridlock, signals a major shift in the state’s political dynamics. While it has prompted internal Democratic frustrations, it has also given Republicans a significant edge in the state’s upcoming elections.
Catherine Cortez Masto and Jacky Rosen’s decision to support the GOP’s plan to end the shutdown has been seen as an electoral calculation and an economic necessity. According to interviews with nearly a dozen political strategists, staffers, and elected officials, their actions were driven by a fear of further economic harm to working-class residents, particularly those reliant on tourism. For Mike Noble, a pollster specializing in the Southwest, this shift illustrates that Nevada is no longer a reliably blue state; it is a swing state with a Democratic lean but a Republican trend. “Brinksmanship doesn’t play well with the middle,” he noted.
The Republicans’ growing advantage in Nevada has been building for years. This year, they overtook Democrats in voter registration for the first time in nearly two decades, thanks to a dedicated campaign by the Nevada Republican Party. Polls show GOP Governor Joe Lombardo with a slight edge in his reelection race, which will be one of the most competitive gubernatorial contests in the nation next year. Additionally, Republicans are targeting Democratic-held House seats in Nevada and the state’s Senate, which currently holds three Democratic seats. In the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump became the first Republican to win Nevada in 20 years, narrowly defeating Kamala Harris by 3.1 points, while Rosen narrowly retained her Senate seat by 1 point.
The economic state of Nevada, particularly its reliance on tourism, has become a critical factor in shaping its political landscape. The state’s hourly wage hospitality workers are deeply affected by the downturn in travel following post-pandemic declines. At the same time, a sharp drop-off in construction jobs has sparked concern among economists and local officials who heavily rely on the tourism industry to measure the health of the local economy. This has made the state particularly sensitive to federal aid disruptions, as seen in recent years with the freeze on the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) during the shutdown. These disruptions have had an immediate impact on thousands of Nevadans who rely on federal benefits, particularly in the state’s most disadvantaged communities.
Political strategists in both parties are deeply engaged in courting the state’s working class, with Republicans focusing on economic promises such as ending taxes on tips and overtime, both of which were part of the GOP’s “big, beautiful bill.” These proposals have been widely criticized by Democrats, who argue that the policies will benefit corporate interests over working-class taxpayers. In contrast, Democrats are focusing on the economic challenges brought by Republican policies, such as GOP-backed health care cuts and aggressive deportations under Trump. As a result, political strategists on both sides are working hard to capture the growing uncertainty of the state’s working-class voters.
Despite these challenges, some Nevada Democrats have voiced support for the senators’ decision, arguing that it was necessary to end the shutdown. For instance, Ted Pappageorge, the secretary-treasurer of the Culinary Union, praised their efforts to fight for working-class Americans. “At the end of the day, it’s about who is going to be in the corner of working-class folks,” he said. However, this support remains limited, as many within the Democratic party have expressed frustration over the senators’ decision to break with the party during the ongoing shutdown crisis.
The decision by Cortez Masto and Rosen to side with Republicans has not gone unnoticed, and they are already facing backlash from some within the Democratic party. Democratic State Assemblymember Selena La Rue Hatch, for example, has voiced concerns that the senators’ actions have weakened the Democratic stance in the fight against a “reckless authoritarian administration.” Similarly, a Democratic state party strategist, speaking under anonymity, acknowledged the importance of the agreement but emphasized that it was primarily focused on ending the pain caused by the shutdown, rather than political tactics.
As the state continues to balance the political and economic realities of its shifting landscape, the implications of this decision could be far-reaching. For Republicans, it is a clear signal that their influence in Nevada is growing, and they are likely to capitalize on this momentum in upcoming elections. For Democrats, it serves as a reminder of the challenges they face in reasserting their dominance in a state that is becoming increasingly competitive. The outcome of these political shifts could have long-term impacts on the state’s economic and political future, as both parties continue to vie for the loyalty of a weary and economically anxious electorate.