Economic Cost of Brexit to UK Exceeds Expectations, Report Reveals

A report by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has estimated that Brexit has led to a reduction in the UK’s GDP of up to 8%, with significant declines in investment, employment, and productivity. The impact, attributed to prolonged uncertainty and reduced access to the EU market, is worse than previously forecast, according to the study published this month. The authors of the NBER study, which includes economists from Stanford University, the Bundesbank, the Bank of England, the University of Nottingham, and King’s College London, analyzed data on the UK economy since 2016, when the Brexit referendum took place. The report states that by 2025, the UK’s GDP was 6 to 8% lower than it would have been had the country remained in the EU. The study found that UK investment fell by 18%, employment by 4%, and labour productivity by 3 to 4%. The loss of friction-free access to the European market had the biggest impact on the country’s growth path, compounded by higher costs for the most technologically advanced and globally focused firms. The paper also noted that the losses reflected elevated uncertainty, reduced demand, diverted management time, and increased misallocation of resources from a protracted Brexit process. The authors said the impact accumulated gradually after the referendum and was larger than earlier five-year forecasts had predicted. A separate Henley Private Wealth Migration Report published earlier this year said Britain is set to lose tens of thousands of wealthy individuals in 2025 due to tax reforms and uncertainty. Economists at Goldman Sachs earlier estimated that Brexit reduced Britain’s real GDP by about 5% compared with its economic peers. The UK ended up with an underperforming economy and a soaring cost of living due to reduced international trade, weak business investment, and fewer EU migrants, the country’s largest source of foreign workers, the bank said. The findings come as the UK remains one of Ukraine’s most persistent backers in its conflict with Russia, channeling millions of pounds’ worth of long-range missiles, tanks, and other weaponry.