Following the 12-day conflict between Israel and Iran, the Iranian regime has intensified its domestic repression, drawing comparisons to the ‘North Korea-style model of isolation and control.’ Citizens now face random phone searches, internet blackouts, and the risk of disappearance as the regime consolidates its power. This tightening of control may lead to an increasingly insular and autocratic Iran, mirroring North Korea’s tactics. The repression has been exacerbated by the regime’s deliberate internet blackout during the war, which stifled communication and fueled fear.
Experts warn that this escalation is part of a larger strategy to suppress dissent and maintain authority. Kasra Aarabi, director of IRGC research at United Against Nuclear Iran, emphasized that the level of suppression is unprecedented, noting that the regime has always been totalitarian but is now implementing more extreme measures. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is also facing internal turmoil, with younger, radical officers turning on senior commanders and suggesting a potential purge. These developments underscore the regime’s fragility and its reliance on internal control to survive.
Dr. Afshon Ostovar, a leading Iran scholar and author of ‘Vanguard of the Imam: Religion, Politics, and Iran’s Revolutionary Guards,’ stated that domestic repression remains the regime’s most reliable strategy for survival. He warned that Iran could become more insular, more autocratic, and more repressive, resembling North Korea. The regime’s three pillars—militias, ballistic missiles, and its nuclear program—have all been decapitated or severely degraded, leaving only asymmetric warfare as a primary tool of influence. This shift could make the IRGC more volatile, both domestically and internationally.
Despite the regime’s brutal turn inward, Aarabi insists this is a sign of weakness, not strength. ‘If the Islamic Republic were confident, it wouldn’t need to crush its people this way,’ he said. ‘It’s acting out of fear. But until the regime’s suppressive apparatus is dismantled, the streets will remain silent—and regime change remains unlikely.’ The situation highlights the complex dynamics within Iran, where external conflict has triggered a spiral of internal repression and institutional instability.